**pre-print**(pre-refereeing);

**post-print**(final draft post-refereeing)

## Working Papers

- F. Petropoulos, D. Apiletti, V. Assimakopoulos, M.Z. Babai, D.K. Barrow, C. Bergmeir, R.J. Bessa, J.E. Boylan, J. Browell, C. Carnevale, J.L Castle, P. Cirillo, M.P. Clements, C. Cordeiro, F.L. Cyrino Oliveira, S. De Baets, A. Dokumentov, P. Fiszeder, P.H. Franses, M. Gilliland, M.S. Gönül, P. Goodwin, L. Grossi, Y. Grushka-Cockayne, M. Guidolin, M. Guidolin, U. Gunter, X. Guo, R. Guseo, N. Harvey, D.F. Hendry, R. Hollyman, T. Januschowski, J. Jeon, V.R. Jose, Y. Kang, A.B. Koehler, S. Kolassa, N. Kourentzes, S. Leva, F. Li, K. Litsiou, S. Makridakis, A.B. Martinez, S. Meeran, T. Modis, K. Nikolopoulos, D. Önkal, A. Paccagnini, I. Panapakidis, J.M. Pavía, M. Pedio, D.J. Pedregal Tercero, P. Pinson, P. Ramos, D. Rapach, J.J. Reade, B. Rostami-Tabar, M. Rubaszek, G. Sermpinis, H.L. Shang, E. Spiliotis, A.A. Syntetos, P.D. Talagala, T.S. Talagala, L. Tashman, D. Thomakos, T. Thorarinsdottir, E. Todini, J.R. Trapero Arenas, X. Wang, R.L. Winkler, A. Yusupova, Z. Ziel, "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting (under review), 2020. [pre-print]
- Corinna Möhrlen, N. Fleischhut, R.J. Bessa, "Decision-making experiment under wind power forecast uncertainty," Working Paper, 2021.
- Andrade et al., "Normality modelling and anomaly detection of SCADA alarms data," Working Paper, 2021.

## In Press

- C. Gonçalves, R.J. Bessa, P. Pinson, "Privacy-preserving distributed learning for renewable energy forecasting,"
*IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy*, In Press, 2021. - L. Dias, M. Ribeiro, A. Leitão, L. Guimarães, R.J. Bessa, L. Carvalho, and M.A. Matos, "An unsupervised approach for fault diagnosis of power transformers," Quality and Reliability Engineering International, In Press, 2021.

## 2021

- C. Gonçalves, L. Cavalcante, M. Brito, R.J. Bessa and J. Gama, "Forecasting conditional extreme quantiles for wind energy,"
*Electric Power Systems Research*, vol. 190, pp. 106636, Jan. 2021. - A. Coronati, J.R. Andrade, R.J. Bessa, "A deep learning method for forecasting residual market curves,"
*Electric Power Systems Research*, vol. 190, pp. 106756, Jan. 2021. - C. Gonçalves, R.J. Bessa, P. Pinson, "A critical overview of privacy-preserving approaches for collaborative forecasting,"
*International Journal of Forecasting*, vol. 37, no. 1, pp. 322-342, Jan-Mar 2021. [post-print] - C. Gonçalves, P. Pinson, R.J. Bessa, "Towards data markets in renewable energy forecasting",
*IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy*, vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 533-542, Jan. 2021. [post-print] [published version]

## 2020

- R.B. Pinto, R.J. Bessa, J. Sumaili, M.A. Matos, "Distributed multi-period three-phase optimal power flow using temporal neighbors,"
*Electric Power Systems Research*, vol.182, pp. 106228, May 2020. - C. Sweeney, R.J. Bessa, J. Browell, P. Pinson, "The future of forecasting for renewable energy,"
*Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment*, vol. 9, no. 2, March/April 2020. - T. Soares, L. Carvalho, H. Morais, R.J. Bessa, T. Abreu, E. Lambert, "Reactive power provision by the DSO to the TSO considering renewable energy sources uncertainty,"
*Sustainable Energy, Grids and Networks*, vol. 22, pp. 100333, June 2020. - J. Peças Lopes, A.G. Madureira, M.A. Matos, R.J. Bessa, V. Monteiro, J. Afonso, S. Santos, J.P. Catalão, C. Antunes, P. Magalhães, "The future of power systems: challenges, trends and upcoming paradigms,''
*Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment*, vol. 9, no. 3, May/June 2020. - R. Dupin, L. Cavalcante, R.J. Bessa, G. Kariniotakis, A. Michiorri, "Dynamic line rating forecasts – Advanced modelling of extreme quantiles and impact on forecast value,"
*Energies*, vol. 13, no. 12, pp.3090, Jun. 2020. - M. Brégère, R. J. Bessa, "Simulating tariff impact in electrical energy consumption profiles with conditional variational autoencoders,"
*IEEE Access*, vol. 8, pp. 131949-131966, July 2020. [open-access] - M. Kezunovic, P. Pinson, Z. Obradovic, S. Grijalva, T. Hong, R. J. Bessa, "Big data analytics in the electricity grids of the future,"
*Electric Power Systems Research*, vol. 189, pp. 106788, Dec. 2020.

## 2019

- V. Miranda, P. Cardoso, R.J. Bessa, I. Decker, "Through the looking glass: seeing events in power systems dynamics,"
*International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems*, vol. 106, pp. 411-419, March 2019. - Tiago Soares, R.J. Bessa, "Proactive management of distribution grids with chance-constrained linearized AC OPF,"
*International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems*, vol. 109, pp. 332-342, July 2019. - J. Filipe, R.J. Bessa, C. Moreira, B. Silva, "Optimal bidding strategy for variable speed pump storage in day-ahead and frequency restoration reserve markets,"
*Energy Systems*, vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 273–297, May 2019. - J. Filipe, R.J. Bessa, M. Reis, R. Alves, P. Póvoa, "Data-driven predictive energy optimization in a wastewater pumping station,"
*Applied Energy*, vol. 252, pp. 113423, Oct. 2019. [post-print] - K. Ganesan, J. Tomé Saraiva, Ricardo J. Bessa, "On the use of causality inference in designing tariffs to implement more effective behavioral demand response programs",
*Energies*, vol. 12, no. 14, pp. 2666, July 2019. [online]

## 2018

- T. Soares, R.J. Bessa, P. Pinson, H. Morais, "Active distribution grid management based on robust AC optimal power flow,"
*IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid*, vol. 9, no.6, pp. 6229-6241, Nov. 2018. [online] - J. Villar, R.J. Bessa, M.A. Matos, "Flexibility products and markets: literature review,"
*Electric Power Systems Research*, vol. 154, pp. 329-340, Jan. 2018. - J. Silva, J. Sumaili, R.J. Bessa, L. Seca, M.A. Matos, V. Miranda, "The challenges of estimating the impact of distributed energy resources flexibility on the TSO/DSO boundary node operating points,"
*Computers & Operations Research*, vol. 96, pp. 294-304, Aug. 2018. - J. Silva, J. Sumaili, R.J. Bessa, L. Seca, M.A. Matos, V. Miranda, M. Sebastian-Viana, M. Caujolle, B. Goncer-Maraver, "Estimating the active and reactive power flexibility area in the TSO-DSO interface,"
*IEEE Transactions on Power Systems*, vol. 33, no.5, pp. 4741-4750, Sept. 2018.

## 2017

- L. Cavalcante, R. J. Bessa, M. Reis, J. Dowell, "LASSO vector autoregression structures for very short-term wind power forecasting,"
*Wind Energy*, vol. 20, no. 4, pp. 657-675, April 2017. [pre-print] [published paper] - R.J. Bessa, C. Möhrlen, V. Fundel, M. Siefert, J. Browell, S. Haglund El Gaidi, Bri-Mathias Hodge, U. Cali, and G. Kariniotakis, "Towards improved understanding of the applicability of uncertainty forecasts in the electric power industry,"
*Energies*, vol. 10, no. 9, pp. 1402, 2017. [published paper] - J.R. Andrade, R.J. Bessa, "Improving renewable energy forecasting with a grid of numerical weather predictions",
*IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy*, vol. 8, no. 4, pp. 1571-1580, Oct. 2017. [online] - J. Dobschinski, R.J. Bessa, P. Du, K. Geisler, S. Ellen Haupt, M. Lange, C. Möhrlen, D. Nakafuji, M. de la Torre Rodriguez, "Uncertainty forecasting in a nutshell: prediction models designed to prevent significant errors,"
*IEEE Power and Energy Magazine*, vol. 15, no. 6, Oct./Dec. 2017. - J.R. Andrade, J.M. Filipe, M. Reis, R.J. Bessa, "Probabilistic price forecasting for day-ahead and intraday markets: Beyond the statistical model," Sustainability, vol. 9, no. 11, pp. 1990, 2017. [online]
- R.B. Pinto, R.J. Bessa, M.A. Matos, "Multi-period flexibility forecast for low voltage prosumers,"
*Energy*, vol. 141, pp. 2251-2263, Dec. 2017. [arXiv:1703.08825]

## 2016

- C. Gallego-Castillo, R.J. Bessa, L. Cavalcante, O. Lopez-Garcia, "On-line quantile regression in the RKHS (Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space) for operational probabilistic forecasting of wind power,"
*Energy*, vol. 113, pp. 355-365, Oct. 2016.

## 2015

- R.J. Bessa, A. Trindade, V. Miranda, "Spatial–temporal solar power forecasting for Smart Grids,"
*IEEE Transactions on Industrial Informatics*, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 232-241, Feb. 2015. [open access] - R.J. Bessa, A. Trindade, C.S. Silva and V. Miranda, "Probabilistic solar power forecasting in smart grids using distributed information,"
*International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems*, vol. 72, pp. 16-23, Nov. 2015. [published paper]

## 2014

- R.J. Bessa, M.A. Matos, "Optimization models for an EV aggregator selling secondary reserve in the electricity market,"
*Electric Power Systems Research*, vol.106, pp.36-50, January 2014. [post-print] [published paper] - R.J. Bessa, C.L. Moreira, B. Silva, M.A. Matos, "Handling renewable energy variability and uncertainty in power systems operation,"
*Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment*, vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 156–178, March/April 2014. [online paper] - E.D. Castronuovo, J. Usaola, R.J. Bessa, M.A. Matos, I.C. Costa, L. Bremermann, J. Lugaro, G. Kariniotakis “An integrated approach for optimal coordination between wind power and hydro pumping storage,”
*Wind Energy*, vol. 17, no. 6, pp. 829-852, June 2014. [published paper]

## 2013

- R.J. Bessa and M.A. Matos, "Optimization models for EV aggregator participation in a manual reserve market,"
*IEEE Transactions on Power Systems*, vol. 28, no. 3, pp. 3085-3095, August 2013. [post-print] [published paper] - Z. Zhou, A. Botterud, J. Wang, R.J. Bessa, H. Keko, J. Sumaili, V. Miranda, “Application of probabilistic wind power forecasting in electricity markets,”
*Wind Energy*, vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 321-477, April 2013. [published paper] - R.J. Bessa and M.A. Matos “Global against divided optimization for the participation of an EV aggregator in the day-ahead electricity market. Part I: theory,”
*Electric Power Systems Research*, vol. 95, pp. 309-318, Feb. 2013. [published paper] [post-print] - R.J. Bessa and M.A. Matos “Global against divided optimization for the participation of an EV aggregator in the day-ahead electricity market. Part II: numerical analysis,”
*Electric Power Systems Research*, vol. 95, pp. 319-329, 2013. [published paper] [post-print] - A. Botterud, Z. Zhou, J.Wang, J. Sumaili, H. Keko, J.Mendes, R.J. Bessa, and V. Miranda, “Demand dispatch and probabilistic wind power forecasting in unit commitment and economic dispatch: a case study of Illinois,”
*IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy*, vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 250-261, Jan. 2013. [online paper]

## 2012

- R.J. Bessa, M.A. Matos, I.C. Costa, L. Bremermann, I.G. Franchin, R. Pestana, N. Machado, H-P. Waldl, and C. Wichmann, “Reserve setting and steady-state security assessment using wind power uncertainty forecast: a case study,”
*IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy*, vol. 3(4), pp. 827-837, Oct. 2012. [published paper] [post-print] - H. Holttinen, M. Milligan, E. Ela, N. Menemenlis, J. Dobschinski, B. Rawn, R.J. Bessa, D. Flynn, E.G. Lazaro, N. Detlefsen, “Methodologies to determine operating reserves due to increased wind power,”
*IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy*, vol. 3(4), pp. 713-723, Oct. 2012. [published paper] - R.J. Bessa, V. Miranda, A. Botterud, J. Wang, and Emil M. Constantinescu, “Time adaptive conditional kernel density estimation for wind power forecasting,”
*IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy*, vol. 3(4), pp. 660-669, Oct. 2012. [published paper] [post-print] - R. Bessa and Manuel A. Matos, “Economic and technical management of an electric vehicles aggregation agent: a literature survey,”
*European Transactions on Electrical Power*, vol. 22(3), pp. 334-350, April, 2012. [published paper] [pre-print] - R. Bessa, Manuel A. Matos, F.J. Soares, J.A. Peças Lopes, “Optimized bidding of a EV aggregation agent in the electricity market,”
*IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid*, vol. 3(1), pp.443-452, Mar. 2012. [published paper] [post-print] - R.J. Bessa, V. Miranda, A. Botterud, Z. Zhou, J. Wang, “Time-adaptive quantile-copula for wind power probabilistic forecasting,”
*Renewable Energy*, vol. 40(1), pp. 29-39, April 2012. [published paper] [post-print] - A. Botterud, J. Wang, Z. Zhou, R.J. Bessa, H. Keko, J.S. Akilimali, V. Miranda, “Wind power trading under uncertainty in LMP markets,”
*IEEE Transactions on Power Systems*, vol. 27(2), pp. 894-903, May 2012. [published paper]

## 2011

- Manuel A. Matos, R. Bessa, “Setting the operating reserve using probabilistic wind power forecasts,”
*IEEE Transactions on Power Systems*, vol. 26(2), pp.594-603, May, 2011. [published paper] [post-print] - R. Bessa, V. Miranda, A. Botterud, J. Wang, “Good or bad wind power forecasts: a relative concept,”
*Wind Energy*, vol. 14(5), pp. 625-636, July 2011. [published paper] - J. Wang, A. Botterud, R. Bessa, H. Keko,V. Miranda, J.S. Akilimali, L. Carvalho, D. Issicaba, “Wind power forecasting uncertainty and unit commitment,”
*Applied Energy*, vol. 88(11), pp.4014-4023, Nov. 2011. [published paper]

## 2010

- A. Botterud, J. Wang, R. Bessa, V. Miranda, “Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets,”
*Electricity Journal*, vol. 23(3), pp. 71-82, April 2010. [published paper]

## 2009

- R. Bessa, V. Miranda and J. Gama, “Entropy and correntropy against minimum square error in offline and online three-day ahead wind power forecasting,”
*IEEE Transactions on Power Systems*, vol. 24(4), pp. 1657-1666, November 2009. [published paper] [post-print] - I. J. Ramirez-Rosado, L. A. Fernandez-Jimenez, C. Monteiro, J.N. Sousa, and R. Bessa, “Comparison of two new short-term wind power forecasting systems,”
*Renewable Energy*, vol. 34(7), pp. 1848-1854, July 2009. [published paper]